Short answer: almost certainly, according to economists.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its next Official Cash Rate decision on Wednesday 2 September, and New Zealand's five major bank economics teams are all forecasting the same result: a 25 basis point increase, taking the OCR from 2.50% to 2.75%.
ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac and Kiwibank are all expecting the Reserve Bank to increase the OCR for the second consecutive meeting.
The disagreement isn't really about what the Reserve Bank will do this week.
It's about what happens next.
The Official Cash Rate is currently 2.50%.
The RBNZ increased it from 2.25% to 2.50% on 8 July 2026, its first OCR increase in more than three years. At the time, the Reserve Bank said further removal of monetary stimulus was likely to be required, although the timing of future increases would depend on economic data.
The next OCR decision is due at 2pm on Wednesday 2 September 2026.
There is an unusually strong consensus.
| Forecaster | OCR prediction |
|---|---|
| ANZ | 2.75% |
| ASB | 2.75% |
| BNZ | 2.75% |
| Westpac | 2.75% |
| Kiwibank | 2.75% |
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold expects the RBNZ to lift the OCR to 2.75% but become increasingly data-dependent after that. Westpac currently sees an OCR of around 3% by the end of 2026.
ASB is more hawkish. It expects 25 basis point increases in September, October and December, taking the OCR to 3.25% by the end of the year.
BNZ goes further again, forecasting a series of 25 basis point increases that could eventually take the OCR to 4% in May 2027.
Kiwibank expects the OCR to reach 2.75% this week and 3% in October before the RBNZ pauses.
But there's a catch.
Kiwibank doesn't actually think another increase is the right move.
Chief economist Jarrod Kerr argues that the domestic economy remains too weak to justify higher interest rates, even though he believes the RBNZ's signalling makes another increase the most likely outcome.
Inflation remains the big issue.
Annual CPI inflation reached 4.1% in the June quarter, above the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target range and slightly above its own previous forecast.
That's enough to keep the RBNZ cautious about leaving monetary policy too stimulatory.
The Reserve Bank's argument is that while the economy remains relatively soft, the OCR is still below what it considers a more neutral setting. Returning interest rates towards neutral could help prevent today's inflation pressures becoming entrenched.
There are some encouraging signs.
Inflation expectations have eased, energy prices have fallen from earlier highs and parts of the domestic economy remain subdued.
That's why Wednesday isn't quite as straightforward as the bank economists' forecasts might suggest.
Yes, although the hold camp is much smaller.
The latest NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board found that just over half its members favour increasing the OCR by 25 basis points.
Other members favour leaving it at 2.50%.
Dennis Wesselbaum argues that weak domestic activity and easing inflation expectations support holding the OCR for now, while Kerry Gupwell says the economic recovery remains uneven and wants clearer evidence that inflation is becoming embedded before backing another increase.
That highlights the RBNZ's dilemma.
Inflation says hike.
Parts of the economy say wait.
A cut looks extremely unlikely at this meeting.
Among the major banks, economists and monetary policy commentary reviewed ahead of the September decision, there is currently no significant call for the RBNZ to reduce the OCR on 2 September.
The debate is overwhelmingly between a 25 basis point increase and a hold.
An OCR increase doesn't automatically mean every mortgage rate rises by exactly the same amount.
But borrowers on floating or variable rates are the most directly exposed.
After the RBNZ increased the OCR by 25 basis points in July, ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank, TSB and Westpac all subsequently increased the variable mortgage rates monitored by the Financial Markets Authority by 25 basis points.
Fixed mortgage rates are different.
They are influenced heavily by wholesale interest rates, expectations about future OCR movements, banks' funding costs and competition between lenders.
That means some of tomorrow's expected OCR increase may already be reflected in fixed rates.
Independent economist Tony Alexander has pointed out that financial markets were already assigning roughly a 90% probability to another OCR increase ahead of the meeting.
So the number to watch tomorrow may not just be 2.75%.
The bigger story could be what the Reserve Bank says about October, December and 2027.
There isn't one mortgage term that's right for everyone.
Your best structure depends on things such as:
Trying to perfectly pick the top or bottom of an interest-rate cycle is difficult.
With economists now debating how far the OCR could ultimately rise, reviewing the structure of your mortgage can be more useful than trying to predict one individual RBNZ announcement.
If the RBNZ increases the OCR to 2.75%, attention will immediately move to its next decision on 28 October 2026.
And that's where the forecasts start spreading out.
Kiwibank expects another increase to 3% before a pause.
Westpac thinks the RBNZ will be increasingly data-dependent around the October decision.
ANZ expects further tightening but sees value in the Reserve Bank maintaining flexibility.
ASB expects increases at every remaining meeting this year.
BNZ believes the tightening cycle could eventually go substantially further.
So while economists appear remarkably confident about September, there's much less certainty about where New Zealand interest rates eventually peak.
The current OCR is 2.50%.
ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Westpac and Kiwibank all expect it to rise to 2.75% on 2 September.
Some economists believe the RBNZ should pause because New Zealand's domestic economy remains weak, but there is currently very little expectation of an OCR reduction.
For mortgage borrowers, tomorrow's increase may already be partly reflected in fixed rates. What the RBNZ says about the next six to twelve months could ultimately matter more.
If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, you're buying a property or you're unsure how further rate increases might affect you, reviewing your lending structure and the options available across different lenders can help you make the decision based on your circumstances rather than trying to pick the next OCR move.
All five major New Zealand bank economics teams currently expect the RBNZ to increase the OCR by 25 basis points on 2 September 2026, taking it from 2.50% to 2.75%.
The New Zealand Official Cash Rate is currently 2.50%.
The next RBNZ OCR announcement is scheduled for 2pm on Wednesday 2 September 2026.
Forecasts vary. Westpac currently sees around 3%, Kiwibank expects the OCR to reach 3% before pausing, while ASB forecasts 3.25% by year-end.
Floating and variable mortgage rates are more directly affected by OCR changes. Fixed mortgage rates depend on wholesale funding costs, financial-market expectations and competition between lenders, so they do not necessarily move by the same amount as the OCR.
A cut at the September meeting is considered very unlikely. Major bank economists currently expect an increase, while the main alternative view is that the RBNZ should hold the OCR at 2.50%.
If your mortgage is coming up for renewal, you're thinking about buying, or you're simply wondering what changing interest rates could mean for you, talk to a mortgage adviser. They can compare options across lenders, look at how different fixed terms could affect your repayments, and help structure your lending around your plans rather than trying to guess exactly where the OCR goes next.
This article provides general information only and is not personalised financial advice. Lending criteria, terms, conditions and affordability assessments vary between lenders. Loan approval is not guaranteed.