TLDR; by Luminate

NZ Property Market Update 17 April 26 | Rate updates and forecasts

Written by Luminate Team | Apr 16, 2026 10:06:40 PM

TLDR; by Luminate

This week had a bit of everything: ANZ nudged rates upward, economists sharpened their pencils, and the much-talked-about cyclone turned out to be more warning than impact. A useful reminder that in both weather and mortgages, the forecast matters, but what actually arrives is what counts.

Rate changes

  • ANZ raised fixed home loan rates this week.
  • The 2-year fixed rate lifted by 20 basis points.
  • The 1-year, 18-month, and 3 to 5-year fixed specials lifted by 10 basis points.
  • It is the clearest sign this week that wholesale funding costs are still influencing pricing, even with the OCR on hold.

Bank forecasts: the tone is firmer

  • ASB’s latest Home Loan Rate Report says upward pressure on mortgage rates remains
  • Inflation, fuel costs, and offshore uncertainty are still keeping economists cautious.
  • Westpac has now pulled forward its expected OCR hike timing to September
  • BNZ says inflation is still tracking hotter than ideal, with 3.0% forecast for Q1 and 4.2% for Q2.

The overall message from the banks this week is pretty consistent: mortgage rates may have found their floor sooner than many expected.

REINZ: March held steady

  • National sales came in at 7,853, almost unchanged from a year ago.
  • New listings were 12,055.
  • Median days to sell stayed at 41 days.

No breakout, no pullback, just a market continuing to move at a measured pace.

Buyer activity: first-home buyers still active

  • Latest Cotality-linked data this week shows first-home buyers made up 27% of purchases in Q1.
  • That keeps first-home buyers doing much of the lifting while other parts of the market remain more selective.

That’s the TLDR this week.

Much like the cyclone, there was plenty of talk this week about what could arrive, but the market itself stayed fairly calm. Underneath that though, the signals are shifting.

Fixed rates are nudging higher, forecasts are less relaxed, and the next few weeks may tell us whether this is just a wobble or the start of a firmer winter trend. If you want to talk through what that means for your own plans, we’re always happy to chat.

Disclaimer: This article is general market commentary only and is not financial advice. Property markets, lending criteria, and interest rates can change quickly, so always do your own research and seek advice based on your own circumstances before making financial decisions.